Since President Obama took office, 85 of 98 state legislative bodies got more Republican
By Philip Bump
August 26 at 4:39 PM - The Wasihngton Post
There are two reasons commonly cited for the fact that far fewer Democrats
than Republicans are running for president in 2016. One is that Hillary Clinton
was (and largely still is) considered a formidable candidate that, for most
politicians, isn't worth the energy and money to try and defeat. The other is
that the Democrats, after a few bad election cycles, have a very small political
"bench" -- meaning that there aren't as many politically talented and successful
candidates on the left as there might otherwise be.
Our Dan Balz made
this point in the wake of last November's crushing Democratic defeat. Balz
noted the scattered Democratic talent on Capitol Hill -- and then looked west.
"The more serious problem for Democrats," he wrote, "is the drubbing theyfve
taken in the states, the breeding ground for future national talent and for
policy experimentation."
Balz pointed to data from the National
Conference of State Legislatures, showing that Republicans had unified
control -- both chambers of the legislature and the governorship -- in nearly
half of the 50 states.
There's another way to look at that. The NCSL's annual breakdown of the
composition of each state's Senate and House or Assembly goes back to 2009, when
President Obama was inaugurated. Since then, the ratio of Republicans to
Democrats has tilted to the right in nearly every Senate and nearly every
legislature.
(This compares the number of Democrats in each legislative body to the number
of Republicans. It excludes any independent or minor party elected officials and
doesn't include vacancies. NCSL data is generally from January of each year. It
also excludes Nebraska, which has a non-partisan, unicameral legislature.)
Part of the reason for that Republican shift is that the major election
cycles since 2009 have been brutal for the Democrats. In both the 2010 and 2014
midterms, the electorate was very unfriendly to the party, as poll results
indicate. In 2012, it was about split. And in the off-year elections during
which some states hold legislative races, turn-out often favors the Republican
Party.
Only between 2011 and 2013, and only in state Houses did the Democrats make
in-roads in more states than Republicans. Between 2009 and 2011 and between 2013
and 2015, the Republicans made gains in far more states.
Overall, of the 98 state senates and houses/assemblies, the Republicans saw
gains in 40 upper chambers and 45 lower ones. Meaning far fewer elected
Democrats, and a smaller bench. Many of those Democrats are necessarily from
swing districts, as our
Aaron Blake pointed out last year -- the sort of districts from which
parties like to recruit.
How many Democrats are we talking about? According to the NCSL data, there
were 4,082 Democrats in state senates and state houses in 2009. In 2015, there
were 3,163 -- a decrease of 22.5 percent.
That's 900-plus fewer Democrats to move up the ladder.